Genuine Uncertainty

In thie latest Newsletter, I wrote briefly about changes that took place in the 1980's which revolutionised the way the world economy worked. It was my initiation, via my father into the world of politics and economics. 

Not to overemphasise it, but it was absolutely mind boggling what was suggested in order to drag the global economy wrecked by high unemployment and inflation. Heresies included longer working hours, shops opening on Sundays, people moving jobs, promotion not on seniority but by this thing called merit. Then throw in selling government assets like Telstra, the Commonwealth bank and CSL. 

It was simply impossible for many older folks to fathom how they could adapt to the changes and ways to survive the onslaught of new policies and rules, since this was uncharted territory for everyone, young people revelled in the opportunities. We were flying blind but the economists promised that everyone would be better off. 

They were kind of right and wrong. Many countries with cheap labour got the opportunity to make the goods and services that rich countries used to make. They got richer. 

But within countries, income inequality grew and many became disaffected, especially middle managers who were 99% men. Over time these men, at first confused, became angrier at losing their previous job and falling so low down the hierarchy, where sometimes told either by a "foreigner" or a woman what the new job entailed!

Eventually things settled and the new world became the existing reality and everyone adapted. Stock markets from 1982 were rocky but went on to be the greatest bull market in US history. The 1980's with all the new money and new entrepreneurs partied hard. Greed is good!

Fast forward to 2025 and the "new" world is now the old world and all its internal contradictions are creating pressure for change. 

At 62, this is the most uncertain I have been since the early 1980s when I was entering my 20's. I can now see the world is on a new path and like the 80's we don't exactly know where we are heading other than we are not standing still. The old world is dead.

Like the 80's when all those old fuddy duddies struggled to adapt as young people created the future, today is seen as a young persons world. Technology, social media, having a side hustle, new words, memes, cryptocurrencies all make it difficult for us oldies to keep up.

What comes next? I don't know.

But one thing I know now which I didn't know then was we are in a period of serious historical change. History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme.

All things cycle. And so, while I'm older and slower, some of us oldies, are more experienced. I've been here before and I believe I have a slight advantage in understanding where we are possibly heading and what we need to do to adapt to this brave new world.