As we approach the end of the year, I become increasingly concerned about the level of market mania across the globe.

Investors who short the market are dead. Those who dare speak of bear markets are laughed at. Leveraged ETFs and call options are the place to be. Leveraged ETFs are at an all time high.

The S&P500 adjusted valuation is now the highest it’s ever been. CAPE is at 38.5. Even the regular P/E is at 31. The S&P500 dividend yield is 1.2% and the 10  year bond - the asset considered risk-free is at 4.3%. Bitcoin is “the thing”. “Gold is great!” “Property is where it’s at”. If you are sitting in 30% cash like Warren Buffett, then you are straight up a loser. Have fun staying poor!

My Facebook feed is filled with what is apparently the “last chance to invest in Australian property and make a fortune”. Or perhaps I need to sign up to find out which ETFs give me income for life? Or perhaps passive income from investing in property? Howe about some ETFs for trading?

End of year predictions along with 2025 are all positive. There is no stopping this train.

I am just waiting for the Uber driver to recommend a few stocks for confirmation that the bull market is near the top.

A little anecdote.

A former client wrote an email titled “Funny Sighting” to me on Wednesday

“Hey Steve hope you're doing well. Just thought you'd find it funny to know a bunch of guys in my gym have a compounding interest calculator on the big screen checking how fast they could turn 100k into 1mil by buy and holding NDQ "with average returns of 20% a year, at least". “

Take a moment to stand aside and just observe people’s behaviour. Listen to their chatter. Are they talking about yields? Are they talking about rebalancing? Are they mentioning valuation levels? Market cycles perhaps?

Nobody except me (and hopefully you) is thinking or talking about trying to avoid losing money.

That I think might be a good place to start.